Prediction of body weight of Brown Alpine goats by measuring body volume

[Predição do peso corporal de cabras da raça Alpina por meio da medida do volume corporal]

ABSTRACT

The objective was to estimate the body weight (BW) of Brown Alpine goats by means of body volume (BV) measurements. We used 132 pieces of information with measurements of BW, body length (BL) and thoracic perimeter (TP) from 22 goats evaluated fortnightly, between March and May 2023. Based on this information, the BV of the animals was calculated. Three mathematical models were evaluated - a linear model, a quadratic model, and an exponential model - with the measurement of BV. The goodness of fit of the equations was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²), mean square error (MSE) and root of the MSE (RMSE). The predictive ability of the models was evaluated by k-fold cross-validation (k = 10). A high positive correlation between BW and TP (r = 0.95) and BL (r = 0.94) was observed. The correlation between BW and BV was higher than the other correlations (r = 0.98). The linear model showed the lowest values of MSE (9.49) and RMSE (3.08). In the cross-validation, the linear and quadratic models presented estimates of the mean BW and the standard deviation of this weight similar to the real data, and high R² values (0.95) of the data predicted by the observed ones. The analysis of the coefficient of correlation and concordance (CCC) also showed that these models have accuracy and precision (CCC > 0.95). Thus, the linear and quadratic models estimate the body weight of Brown Alpine goats with precision and accuracy.

Keywords: body length; Live weight; modeling; thoracic perimeter