Prediction of live weight in beef heifers using a body volume formula

[Predição do peso vivo em novilhas de corte usando a fórmula do volume corporal]

ABSTRACT

The objective of this study was to develop and evaluate linear, quadratic, and allometric models to predict live weight (LW) using the body volume formula (BV) in crossbred heifers raised in southeastern Mexico. The LW (426.25±117.49kg) and BV (338.05±95.38 dm³) were measured in 360 heifers aged between 3 and 30 months. Linear and non-linear regression were used to construct prediction models. The goodness-of-fit of the models was evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), coefficient of determination (R²), mean squared error (MSE), and root MSE (RMSE). In addition, the developed models were evaluated through cross-validation (k-folds). The ability of the fitted models to predict the observed values was evaluated based on the RMSEP, R^2, and mean absolute error (MAE). The quadratic model had the lowest values of AIC (2688.39) and BIC (2700.05). On the other hand, the linear model showed the lowest values of MSE (7954.74) and RMSE (89.19), and the highest values of AIC (2709.70) and BIC (2717.51). Despite this, all models presented the same R² value (0.87). The cross-validation (k-folds) evaluation of fit showed that the quadratic model had better values of MSEP (41.49), R² (0.85), and MAE (31.95). We recommend the quadratic model to predictive of the crossbred beef heifers' live weight using the body volume as the predictor.

Keyword: body weight; crossbred heifers; body volume; humid tropics; mathematical models