Sensitivity of the sorghum yield to individual changes in climate parameters: modelling based approach

Based on sensitivity analyses the effect of changing in climate on sorghum has been investigated. This has been achieved by conducting crop modeling experiments carried out with weather observations and output of global climate models. As can be anticipated results demonstrated that the sorghum yield is more sensitive to rainfall, solar radiation and CO₂ concentration. However, the increase in CO₂ concentration has a positive effect on yield in years that the crop is submitted to water stress. This effect is extremely reduced under well watered conditions and therefore is subject to the climate inter-annual variability. Accumulated solar radiation along the sorghum cycle below 1900 MJ m^–2 has also been shown to reduce the yield. Compared to other weather variables the sorghum yield is less sensitive to changes in relative humidity. In this sense, changes in stomatal closure and therefore photosyntesis is not highly dependent on water vapor pressure. These finds can be applied for both climate observations and global models output.

climate change; crop models; sensitivity analyses; CO₂ concentration; productivity